Here’s How Bitcoin Over-the-counter Availability Can Affect BTC Price (CryptoQuant)

Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing a positive momentum that has pushed it very close to its all-time high of $73,750. The leading crypto asset came a couple of hundred dollars away from crushing that milestone on October 29. However, it recorded a small correction, and is currently trading at $72,200.

While crypto enthusiasts anticipate a new high in the coming days, CryptoQuant analysts have explained the role bitcoin over-the-counter (OTC) availability could play in the asset’s price trajectory in the near term.

Bitcoin Rallies on ETF Demand

According to the CryptoQuant report, bitcoin’s rally is driven by growing net purchases from United States spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

These purchases have increased from a daily volume of 1,300 BTC at the start of the month to 5,800 BTC as of October 29. ETFs recorded their largest daily purchase of 7,700 BTC for this month on October 13.

Despite the surge in ETF demand, daily purchase volumes have yet to spike to levels seen in February and March, when investors bought a maximum of 16,000 BTC. CryptoQuant said these lower daily purchases could answer investor concerns about BTC not hitting a new high amid increasing demand from ETFs.

OTC Desks’ Balance to Remain Negative

In Q1 2024, BTC rallied to record highs as the growth of the asset’s balance on OTC desks remained in negative territory. The case is the opposite now; more bitcoins are available on OTC desks than at the start of the year. Compared to a balance of 183,000-193,000 BTC in Q1 2024, there are currently about 416,000 BTC on OTC desks at the time of writing.

Due to the high BTC availability on OTC desks, daily ETF purchases account for a lower share of the Bitcoin inventory. Total daily ETF purchases currently represent between 1% % and 2% of the total BTC balance on OTC desks, compared with a 9% to 12% share recorded in the first quarter of the year. Analysts say higher ETF demand will be needed to reduce Bitcoin inventory on OTC desks.

On the bright side, OTC desks’ BTC balances have stopped growing at the pace seen in Q2 and Q3 due to declining inflows. The monthly growth of the total BTC balance on these desks is at 3,000 BTC, compared to 77,000 BTC and 92,000 BTC in August and June.

Since BTC rallies when OTC desks’ balances are negative, ETF demand needs to rise while these desks continue to see lower inflows for the crypto asset to record new highs.