Over the weekend, Bitcoin technical analyst and stock-to-flow model creator “PlanB” said that after the halving, “Bitcoin will be scarcer than gold and real estate.”
However, he added that he wouldn’t be surprised if Bitcoin’s market capitalization, currently less than $1 trillion, stayed below gold’s, which is currently less than $10 trillion.
With some basic math and assumptions, this implies a BTC price greater than $500,000 by dividing a $10 trillion market cap by 20 million coins.
After April halving, bitcoin will be scarcer than gold and real estate. It would surprise me if bitcoin market cap (<$1T) will stay below gold market cap (>$10T). This implies a BTC price >$500k (>$10T/20m).
Gold S2F-ratio ~60
Real Estate S2F-ratio ~100
Bitcoin S2F-ratio ~110— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) February 3, 2024
Bitcoin May Never Drop Below $31K Again
However, halving gains are usually recognized a year after the event, so there is unlikely to be a massive price pump after April if history rhymes.
Additionally, for Bitcoin’s market capitalization to increase tenfold, it would require a massive influx of fresh capital, which doesn’t seem to be there at the moment, considering the current climate.
On Feb. 4, the analyst referenced his S2F model again, referring to the Bitcoin 200-week moving average, which is $31,000. Bitcoin has never dropped below the 200wma before, leading the analyst to conclude:
“So $31k might be the absolute floor, and Bitcoin might never see $31k ever again IMO.”
In the short-term, analyst “CryptoHamster” identified a bullish pennant chart pattern. He said that the breakout is threatening to be on the downside, but an upswing could move prices to $45,550.
It looks like $BTC is printing a bullish pennant. Let’s wait for the breakout (currently, it is threatening to break it to the downside instead), but if all goes well, we can see at least 45550. #bitcoin $BTCUSD pic.twitter.com/QS0GXB5XVQ
— CryptoHamster (@CryptoHamsterIO) February 4, 2024
Fellow analyst “Rekt Capital” also hinted at an upside move, stating:
“Bitcoin is on the cusp of invalidating its Bearish Divergence with a break of its RSI downtrend,”
BTC was trading down 0.5% on the day at $42,700 at the time of writing.
Elsewhere on Crypto Markets
Crypto markets have been flat over the past 24 hours, with total capitalization at $1.71 trillion during the Monday morning Asian trading session.
Bitcoin has fallen to around $43K and appears to be heading towards resistance at $42K. Meanwhile, Ethereum is down 0.4% on the day, dipping below $2,300.
Most of the altcoins are in the red, aside from Chainlink (LINK) and Tron (TRX), which have gained a couple of percent on the day.
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