On Oct. 6, Capriole Fund founder Charles Edwards observed the hodl waves for long-term Bitcoin holders.
He noted that the recent massive growth in long-term Bitcoin holders is comparable only with 2016. The jump will have big consequences in 2024, he said adding that this was not seen in the last bull cycle, meaning that the next one could be even larger.
“That makes this cycle more similar to 2017, which saw 10X the price appreciation of 2020.”
The massive growth in long-term Bitcoin holders is comparable only with 2016. This step-change jump in Hodl Waves will have big consequences in 2024. Something we didn’t see last bull-run. That makes this cycle more similar to 2017, which saw 10X the price appreciation of 2020. pic.twitter.com/fNLGIKC0O0
— Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) October 5, 2023
The bull market in 2017 saw BTC prices surge 1,900% throughout that year. Comparatively, gains were closer to 600% during the 2020-21 bull market.
Bitcoin Sentiment Strengthens
The responses were mostly in agreement with that sentiment despite the current market outlook, which is rather bearish.
The current fear and greed market sentiment index is at 50, which is neutral. However, analysts and traders are confident that next year will see the beginning of a new cycle that peaks in 2025.
On Oct. 5, crypto analyst “hoeem” said, “It won’t take much for Bitcoin to flip bullish,”
He added that there were several tailwinds that could accelerate and catalyze this flip. These include the four-year cycle theory, which puts the next one due in 2024. The halving is intrinsically linked to these cycles, and that is due in April and May next year.
There is also the premise of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval. This would mean that issuers need to buy BTC directly, adding to buying pressure and elevating prices.
The potential impact of supply shock has also been observed by many crypto traders and investors.
The BlackRock Spot #Bitcoin ETF is expected to attract $200 billion worth of inflow!
With only about 2 million Bitcoins remaining available for purchase, the potential impact on Bitcoin’s value will be massive!
We might be on the verge of a supply shock. pic.twitter.com/2184dMTxXo
— Crypto Rover (@rovercrc) October 5, 2023
Another potential driver is a victory for major companies such as Ripple, Coinbase, and Grayscale against the Securities and Exchange Commission. The courts have shown leniency in their favor in rulings so far, and an all-out win would be a massive boon for the crypto industry.
Crypto Market Outlook
Crypto markets have been steadily declining over the past week, with total capitalization falling to $1.12 trillion at the time of writing.
However, markets have remained flat and tightly range-bound since their mid-August dump.
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